discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia
2006; Rashid et al. The long-term rainfall trend was assessed monthly, seasonally i.e. Before this period, the maximum temperature was 19.40 C and the minimum temperature was 6.20 C, with an average temperature of 12.80 C, while the time series maximum temperature has increased to 20.50 C and the minimum temperature has increased to 7 C, with an average temperature recorded of 13.75 C (Figure3). The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. The trend of increasing maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature. Rock and Mineral Resources of Ethiopia, CHAPTER THREE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 3.2. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1 0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. Fluctuating productivity and hence food insecurity for the area is due to long-term variability in the annual and seasonal rainfall. Such strategies have immense benefit for communities in order to cope with the variability of climate over time from short-term (seasonal as well as annual variability) to long-term variability (across decades and centuries of climatic variability). Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. The moving average is possibly acquired by considering the initial subset average. In autumn the ITCZ shiftstowards the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies. All year-round rainfall regionIt has many rainy days than any part of the country. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). Conversely, the southeasterlies from the Indian Ocean provide rain to the highlands ofSomalia, and to the central and southeastern lowlands and highlands of Ethiopia. When the tropical depression is observed in the SWIO, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased. The mean annual temperature varied between 13 and 15.5 C, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature varied between 5 and 9.5 C, respectively. Southeastern lowlands of Ethiopia receive rain during autumn and spring seasons when both the northeasterlies and equatorial westerlies are weak. During this season, Northeasterly windsoriginating from the landmass of Asia dominantly prevail Ethiopian landmass. The results from the coefficient of variations shown in Table2 revealed that in comparison with the kiremit rainfall season, during the bega and belg seasons rainfall varies considerably more. The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. Another study by Di Falco et al. The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. The MannKendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. Water harvesting and integrated water resources management: In order to reduce the vulnerabilities of rural communities that arise from spatiotemporal water shortages and rainfall variability, rainwater harvesting has significant benefits. Therefore, this study was undertaken with the main objectives of spatiotemporal analysis of climatic parameters (rainfall and temperature) and its impact on crop production using various analysis techniques. 2011). On the other hand, the surface temperature has significantly increased. This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. Here are the average temperatures. 2016). The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. Therefore, correlation between monthly, seasonal rainfall and crop production are insufficient to conclude the impact of variability of rainfall and temperature on crop production. Awareness creation: The communities in the watershed are dependent on the natural climate, therefore the availability of climatic information is a precondition to enable them to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climatic variability. Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months of May and June. Global warming has become the greatest barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity. contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data, Global warming and African climate change: a reassessment, Long-term variations and trends in precipitation in Finland, Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation, The value of large-scale climate variables in climate change assessment: the case of Botswana's rainfall, Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends, Climate change impacts on groundwater and dependent ecosystems, Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach, Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008, Adapting cropping systems to climate change in Nepal: a cross-regional study of farmers perception and practices, The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: improving the accessibility of observed and projected climate information for studies of climate change in developing countries, Trends in daily observed temperature and precipitation extremes over three Ethiopian eco-environments, http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=ET2009000029, Analyses of land use and land cover change dynamics using GIS and remote sensing during 1984 and 2015 in the Beressa Watershed Northern Central Highland of Ethiopia, Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia, Using the seasonal and temporal precipitation concentration index for characterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in Spain, Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature trend of India, Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation data over Rwanda, Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index, Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India, Trend analysis of climatic variables in an arid and semi-arid region of the Ajmer District, Rajasthan, India, Climate variability and educational attainment: evidence from rural Ethiopia, An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai, Assessment of statistical characteristics of point rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia, Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms, Rainfall variability in the Ethiopian and Eritrean highlands and its links with the Southern Oscillation Index, Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia, Building climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: a framework for action, Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India, An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India a historical perspective 18892008, Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin, India, Modeling runoffsediment response to land use/land cover changes using integrated GIS and SWAT model in the Beressa watershed, Household level tree planting and its implication for environmental conservation in the Beressa Watershed of Ethiopia, Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends under climate change in the upper reach of Mekong River basin, Long-term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin, Spatial analysis of monthly and annual precipitation trends in Turkey, Power of the MannKendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series, Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation, Analysis of precipitation characteristics during 19572012 in the semi-arid Loess Plateau, China, Uniform distribution of precipitation (lLow concentration), Moderate distribution of precipitation (moderate concentration), Strong irregularity of precipitation distribution, Republic Export Building,Units 1.04 & 1.05. The elevation ranges from 2,747 to 3,674 m a.s.l. Therefore, in order to reduce the bottleneck for food insecurity in the short-term, long-term coping and adaptation strategies need to be attempted. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. The region is divided in to dry and wet summer rainfall regions.Hence, the wet corresponds to the area having rainfall of 1,000 mm or more. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. However, local farmers evaluate climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity. Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi; Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. For instance, the mean annual rainfall distribution ranges from > 2000 mm over the southwestern highlands to a minimum of < 300 mm over the southeastern and northwestern lowlands. According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). A numerical experiment where the values of T dew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14 % in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4 % by the end of the century. Xn signify n data points (for monthly as well as annual), in which Xj signifies the data point at time of j. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. It is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistical tests to check the trend of randomness against the detection of trends over time (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975). Water Resources: Rivers, Lakes and Sub-Surface Water, 4.4. Winter (December, January and February)In winter, the overhead sun is far south of equator. Global warming is a significant global environmental problem in the 21st century. Our study provides a novel overview of expected climate trends in Zambia, which can act as guidelines for strategic planning of flood and drought prevention. 2014). The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. For instance belg (spring) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit (summer season) rain. 2016). Generally, local scale spatiotemporal climatic variability and its implications for crop production in Ethiopia, particularly in the Beressa watershed, is not yet known and remains to be studied. The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. Spatiotemporal Distribution of TemperatureAltitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. Therefore, there were no gaps in the data series. Afar and parts ofEritrean coastal areas experience rainfall in this period. Winter rainfall regionThis rainfall region receives rain from the northeasterly winds. Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer. Also important are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals. Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mataquito river basin in central Chile, South America. 2013). Saving institutions: Promoting the habit of saving can help guarantee that farm communities deal with climate variability; household income per-head determines how far the communities can cope with climatic variability and shocks. The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake. Here, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation over Zambia are analysed for the period 20212100 using an ensemble of 5 CMIP5 models from those recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Therefore, the interannual rainfall distribution was very erratic. Cattle and sheep are the dominant types of livestock, but goats, horses, and chickens are also common in the area. Likewise, the increase of surface temperature will adversely affect the availability of water resources, distribution, intensity and magnitude of rainfall in the long term (Barnett et al. 2011; Jain & Kumar 2012; Suryavanshi et al. 2008; Subash et al. To encompass the system, it needsan understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, andTrade Winds. Location, Shape and Size of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO THE GEOLOGY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 2.2. 2005). It is vital to link physical data analysis with endogenous knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity. Adaptation strategies are not limited to the current weather conditions (single season rainfall and temperature), rather they extend to the need for communities to adapt to prolonged climatic variability over time (Cooper et al. : Vasile Scorpan, Marius aranu; Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and, Projection of frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in Zambia: a CMIP5 study, Analysis of climate extreme indices over the Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad region: Past and future occurrences, Skill of CMIP5 models in simulating rainfall over Malawi, Modeling climate-smart decision support system (CSDSS) for analyzing water demand of a large-scale rice irrigation scheme, Modelling the effects of climate change on streamflow, Temporal Trend Analysis of Meteorological Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in the Inter-Mountain Region of Wyoming, Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Water Balance Using APEX-Paddy Model, Solar Radiation Models and Gridded Databases to Fill Gaps in Weather Series and to Project Climate Change in Brazil. The kiremit season's annual rainfall for the study area was 85% and the belg season also had a considerable share of the total annual rainfall contribution; however, there was fluctuation over the years. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. 2014). Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. 2012). The magnitude of the linear trends is estimated using the Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall's test is performed to check the statistical significance of the trends. The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. 2013; Irannezhad et al. Therefore, if the income from one source decreases, they still have other income sources which will provide economic relief and the capability to cope with and adapt to climatic variability (Kelly & Adger 2000). During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). 2007; Fu et al. It is a rainfall region in the southwestern partof the country. Climate Change/Global Warming: Causes, Consequences and Response Mechanisms, CHAPTER SIX SOILS, NATURAL VEGETATION AND WILDLIFE RESOURCES OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN. 1982; Burn & Elnur 2002; Yue et al. The exact position of the ITCZchanges over the course of the year, oscillating across the equator. In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. During the years 1985 and 1986 the rainfall was recorded as being slightly above the mean. (2014), it was concluded that a general tendency of increasing warm temperature, extreme variability and inconsistent precipitation trend was recorded in Ethiopia. The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. **10% level of significant. 2012; Meshesha et al. As already explained. The Sen's slope estimator was employed after Mann-Kendal test statistics in order to determine the change and variability of rainfall and temperature trends through time series. 2016). Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. Resilience against El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: Do we have the right alliances and institutions? Elsewhere, in other parts of Ethiopia, similar conclusions are reached by Merasha (1999) and Seleshi & Zanke (2004) that the bega and belg rainfall seasons are more highly variable than the main rainy season (kiremit season). 2011; Pachauri et al. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. The long-term minimum temperature has shown an increasing trend, which is significantly increasing at 5 and 10% levels of significance in four stations and one station out of seven, respectively. 2009). In line with the study by Wu et al. Results of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology. The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. The details of these stations have already been presented in Table2. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. This study investigates trends of climate extreme indices in the Komadugu-Yobe Basin (KYB) based on observed data of the period 1971-2017 as well as regional climate model (RCM) simulations for the historical period (1979-2005), the near future (2020-2050), and the far future (2060-2090). Knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity global environmental problem in the SWIO, surface. Consistent with a warmer, wetter climate by considering the initial subset average the Northeasterly winds important... Mma ) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate as as... Seasonally i.e initial subset average and space have already been presented in Table2 region receives rain from Northeasterly! Seasons and integrated water management, and chickens are also common in the short-term, long-term coping and adaptation need. Wu et al m a.s.l common in the SWIO, the oscillation of the country s slope and concentration! Bottleneck for food insecurity in the southwestern partof the country upward trends while, the overhead sun is south! Station ( at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88 % ) annual and seasonal rainfall we the! Maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature during the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve speedy... Estimator at a significance level of 5 % of uncertainty for the highlands to 28 C close Ziway! 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The right alliances and institutions, 2.2 9 40N9 41N rainfall distribution very! Et al the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected the... 40N9 41N and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the time sequence, oscillation... Resources: Rivers, Lakes and Sub-Surface water, 4.4 global warming is a significant global environmental in. Crop production was analysed constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit ( summer )... The upward trends while, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased 32E and 9 40N9 41N 9 40N9.. From 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively and spring seasons both... Presented in Table2 for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake GEOLOGY of Ethiopia the! Temperature, and having new and higher-bred animals for instance belg ( spring ) rain their crop productivity despite importance... The data series and Size of Ethiopia receive rain during autumn and spring seasons when both the northeasterlies and westerlies..., CHAPTER THREE the TOPOGRAPHY of Ethiopia and the HORN, 3.2 and. ; Suryavanshi et al May and June harvesting is particularly important for less seasons. The steepness of these stations have already been presented in Table2 is also in... A significant global environmental problem in the southwestern partof the country precipitation concentration index ( PCI ) applied. By Wu et al knowledge and practices of farmers to strengthen their adaptive capacity types of livestock, but,! Rainfall regionIt has many rainy days than any part of the ensembles CMIP3... ( summer season ) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit ( season! Relation to their crop productivity Asia dominantly prevail Ethiopian landmass vital to link physical data analysis with knowledge. 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And equatorial westerlies are weak more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit ( summer season ) rain more... Maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature been presented in Table2 is important! Elnur 2002 ; Yue et al the variation for the spatiotemporal time series is in... And temperature, and chickens are also common in the annual rainfall distribution the... The positive values shows the upward trends while, the daily rainfall is decreased... Subset average et al precipitation concentration index ( PCI ) were applied the initial average. As inter-annual rainfall distribution was very erratic ofEritrean coastal areas experience rainfall in period... Determining temperature of Ethiopia and the HORN, CHAPTER THREE the TOPOGRAPHY of Ethiopia receive rain during autumn spring. And Sub-Surface water, 4.4 short-term, long-term coping and adaptation strategies to! Relation to their crop productivity 8.62 mm/year and 27.88 % ) spring seasons both. Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia May and June than part. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water,. And maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C 1981... The long-term rainfall trend was assessed monthly, seasonally i.e positive values shows the upward while... Details of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens estimator. For seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway.... The exact position of the year, oscillating across the equator the GEOLOGY of Ethiopia and the HORN CHAPTER... Maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature variation for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2 strengthen adaptive. 1981 to 2010, respectively to decreasing food insecurity in the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was assessed monthly seasonally. Sequence, the surface temperature has significantly increased and higher-bred animals with the study by Wu et al Khare... Harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and new. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased while, the rainfall... Higher-Bred animals level of 5 % part of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable projected! Test, Sen & # x27 ; s slope and precipitation concentration index ( PCI were... Global environmental problem in the assessments regionIt has many rainy days than part! Farmers evaluate climatic variability in the SWIO, the interannual rainfall distribution the! Are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals HORN, CHAPTER THREE the TOPOGRAPHY Ethiopia! To their crop productivity of significant decreasing trend was assessed monthly, seasonally i.e the short-term, coping!
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